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Pastoralist Simulator Helps Global Conversation on Drought-Induced Displacement

By Travis Franck
July 14, 2014

Climate Interactive was proud to participate in an important global meeting in Nairobi recently. The Nansen Initiative is an on-going international conversation on the situation of ‘cross-border displaced persons.’ The meeting in Nairobi was one of six government consultations in different regions of the world, culminating in recommendations for governments to better coordinate around the needs and rights of displaced persons. Climate Interactive provided evidence on the scope and scale of pastoralist displacement in the Horn of Africa.

Climate Interactive, along with our partner IDMC, presented to approximately 100 delegates from eight countries in the Greater Horn of Africa. Delegates represented ministries of foreign affairs, ministries of agriculture, and governmental agencies responsible for natural disasters (e.g, droughts).

We presented on four main conclusions, which are detailed in a technical paper. The conclusions are:

  1. Population growth will influence magnitude of displacement
  2. Drought probability influences displacement
  3. Drought and climate change are not the only drivers of displacement
  4. Pasture access influences pastoralist vulnerability and displacement patterns

The presentation concluded with a live demonstration of our Horn of Africa Pastoralist decision support tool. Climate Interactive and IDMC are making the tool available for use and extension by any interested government, NGO, or UN group.

For more information, see the following resources:

Technical Paper on HOA Pastoralist Simulator (PDF)

Nansen Initiative HOA Consultation

IDMC Pastoralist Simulator Blog Post

Event Info: Theme: Greater Horn of Africa Regional Consultation Natural Hazards, Climate Change, and Cross-Border Displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa: Protecting People on the Move Date: 21-23 May 2014 Location: Nairobi, Kenya

Graphs of historical and simulated displacement in HOA. The Pastoralist Simulator reproduces real-world behavior in several important ways. Graphs of historical and simulated displacement in HOA. The Pastoralist Simulator reproduces real-world behavior in several important ways.