As Heads of State Talk Here in Copenhagen, We've Made Progress and Have Further To Go

By Andrew P. Jones
December 18, 2009

Today, as the Heads of State gather here at the Copenhagen Conference, our calculations show that current confirmed proposals are not yet ambitious enough to limit temperature increase to 1.5-2°C (2.7-3.6°F) over pre-industrial temperatures. As shown above in the Climate Scoreboard, we estimate a temperature increase of 3.9°C (7.0°F) over pre-industrial if current proposals were implemented as compared to 4.8°C (8.7°F) temperature increase by 2100 without emissions reductions.

For details on calculations, assumptions, and the scientific methods behind the simulation, click here.

The Climate Scoreboard was created by the Climate Interactive program out of Sustainability Institute. The simulation behind it was built by SI, the Sloan School of Management at MIT and Ventana Systems.

The Scoreboard is based on the C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) computer simulation, which is carefully calibrated to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report results. C-ROADS emerged from research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and allows users to input mitigation proposals for China, India, the US, the European Union, and other nations and regions. It then simulates these emissions’ impacts on greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature change, per-capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sea level rise and other indicators. More information on the simulator is available here.

In addition to the Scoreboard, C-ROADS analysis of current proposals is shared online in a variety of forms, including graphics, data files, and slide sets.

C-ROADS has been used in strategic planning sessions for decision makers from government, business and social organizations and in interactive role-playing policy exercises.

Launching the Scoreboard, Dr. Elizabeth Sawin of Sustainability Institute said:

“The Climate Scoreboard helps make sense of what is happening in the climate treaty process. It helps negotiators, political leaders non-governmental organizations, the media and citizens understand the state of the negotiations. All of us have a stake in these negotiations, and the reporting, which will be continuously updated during the Copenhagen conference, will help us track how close the negotiations are to achieving their goals.”

Contact for interviews:

Dr. Elizabeth Sawin, Climate Interactive Program, Sustainability Institute

bethsawin [at] sustainer.org — www.climateinteractive.org

Twitter: @climateinteract

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